Backtest context

How to interpret TrendRadar backtests

Backtests are used to compare rule sets and avoid relying only on visual impressions. They are research evidence, not a promise of future performance.

Metrics that matter

MetricWhy it matters
CyclesSample size. A strategy with only a few trades can look impressive by chance.
Median returnShows the typical result and reduces the influence of a few huge winners.
Win rateShows how often closed cycles were positive, but says little about payoff size by itself.
Average max gainShows upside potential inside cycles, including gains that may not be captured by the exit rule.
Max drawdownShows historical adverse movement during the cycle.
Active tradesHelps estimate whether a strategy would create too many simultaneous candidates.

Current backtest table

The generated backtest table is available here: TrendRadar strategy comparison.

Use it together with the methodology and strategy pages. A strong backtest should ideally have a robust sample, positive median return, reasonable drawdown, and rules that make sense before seeing the results.

Limitations

Backtests do not include all trading costs, taxes, spread behavior, real-time execution, psychological constraints, or future changes in market structure. They are best used to reject weak ideas and compare research candidates.